The Prediction Game

Salvete Omnes,

One of the habits I want to cultivate is making my beliefs pay rent. In the interest of encouraging this I am declaring the start of a new game: the Prediction Game. Here’s how it goes,

You have a belief about the future, say “I will write 3 blog posts by December 4th”. Now, you judge how likely that event is to come true.
Maybe, 60% probability. Finally, you write it up in a blog post like so:

Prediction: I will write 3 blog posts by December 4th; 60%

The format is important here. Specifically, the word ‘prediction’, colon, the prediction itself, semicolon, probability of the prediction coming true. If people start doing this I’ll set up a script that scrubs these sentences, parses them, and dumps them into a table. Then we can go over the predictions and see who got what right. If this takes off, I plan to pull and score predictions around once each month and every year we will have a big blog post that looks at everybody’s predictions and calibrations. This will be fun!

Best of science!

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