So since it seems to be a thing so far for the first prediction to be a self prediction, I would like to submit the following:
Prediction: Every week for the rest of this year 2016, I will write at least one blog post, alternating between posting on AWDE, and posting on my own website; 80%
What’s interesting is this prediction game seems to offer a unique opportunity specifically for self predictions. The above is something I’ve been telling myself I would do for an exceptionally long time…but my expected payoff for writing a blog post was always pretty low; even though I personally gain from writing a post (I normally have to do some research/learn something, and then get a chance to put down and organize my thoughts about it) it takes me a lot of time to write, and very few people will see it and obtain any value from the work. So in the end, my own laziness and lack of time strictly dominates, and I never write anything.
However, this game pretty heavily influences that payoff matrix, for a couple of reasons:
- There are now people who are publicly aware that I’m attempting this! I can be held accountable now. Expected payoff for writing a post goes up, because in the eyes of my peers, I followed through on something I said I would do. (I have a reputation to uphold here!)
- Since this is a game, and it’s fun to try and do well in games, it’s in my best interests to make accurate predictions! An 80% prediction should be fulfilled 4 out of 5 times, so for my prediction to be accurate, I better be pretty likely to succeed! This likewise directly corresponds to higher values in my payoff matrix for writing a post.
I hereby call upon and invoke the powers of self-fulfilling prophecies!
Good luck to everyone in their predictions, past and future!