We did some cool stuff this year. Finished an RPG campaign, made a game, and Nurielite continues its slow march forward. My predictions are not as cool as Scott Alexander’s tend to be, but in the interest of providing at least some material:
Prediction: I will get the whole prediction-engine thing working before the start of March; 70%
Prediction: Nurielite will move into some kind of actually functional state this year; 80%
Alright, see you guys on the other side.
So since it seems to be a thing so far for the first prediction to be a self prediction, I would like to submit the following:
Prediction: Every week for the rest of this year 2016, I will write at least one blog post, alternating between posting on AWDE, and posting on my own website; 80%
What’s interesting is this prediction game seems to offer a unique opportunity specifically for self predictions. The above is something I’ve been telling myself I would do for an exceptionally long time…but my expected payoff for writing a blog post was always pretty low; even though I personally gain from writing a post (I normally have to do some research/learn something, and then get a chance to put down and organize my thoughts about it) it takes me a lot of time to write, and very few people will see it and obtain any value from the work. So in the end, my own laziness and lack of time strictly dominates, and I never write anything.
However, this game pretty heavily influences that payoff matrix, for a couple of reasons:
- There are now people who are publicly aware that I’m attempting this! I can be held accountable now. Expected payoff for writing a post goes up, because in the eyes of my peers, I followed through on something I said I would do. (I have a reputation to uphold here!)
- Since this is a game, and it’s fun to try and do well in games, it’s in my best interests to make accurate predictions! An 80% prediction should be fulfilled 4 out of 5 times, so for my prediction to be accurate, I better be pretty likely to succeed! This likewise directly corresponds to higher values in my payoff matrix for writing a post.
I hereby call upon and invoke the powers of self-fulfilling prophecies!
Good luck to everyone in their predictions, past and future!
One of the habits I want to cultivate is making my beliefs pay rent. In the interest of encouraging this I am declaring the start of a new game: the Prediction Game. Here’s how it goes,
You have a belief about the future, say “I will write 3 blog posts by December 4th”. Now, you judge how likely that event is to come true.
Maybe, 60% probability. Finally, you write it up in a blog post like so:
Prediction: I will write 3 blog posts by December 4th; 60%
The format is important here. Specifically, the word ‘prediction’, colon, the prediction itself, semicolon, probability of the prediction coming true. If people start doing this I’ll set up a script that scrubs these sentences, parses them, and dumps them into a table. Then we can go over the predictions and see who got what right. If this takes off, I plan to pull and score predictions around once each month and every year we will have a big blog post that looks at everybody’s predictions and calibrations. This will be fun!
Best of science!